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Friday, August 29, 2008

The Sad State of U.S. Broadband

The U.S. has a dismal showing among nations in terms of broadband availability, with no easy solution to bridge the gap

Although the Internet was started here, the U.S. can't seem to catch up with other developed nations when it comes to giving citizens access to high-speed connections.

For the second year running, the U.S. ranked 15th among the 30 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development in terms of broadband availability. Denmark ranked first again in the annual OECD survey, followed by a host of European and Asian nations. Indeed, while the number of Americans with access to broadband service rose 20% last year, to nearly 70 million people, the most in the OECD, that amounted to just 23 of every 100 residents. By contrast, the top five countries in the OECD ranking all sport per-capita penetration rates of better than 30%.

Why isn't the U.S. up to speed online? The U.S. Federal Communications Commission is quick to point out differences in population and geography that have made it more difficult for the nation to catch up with smaller countries. It is easier, after all, to deliver broadband in densely populated areas where the same cables can serve hundreds, if not thousands, of subscribers, giving phone and cable TV companies the financial incentive to upgrade their networks. The U.S. has rural areas where the revenue to be made from laying down fiber-optic cables to reach scattered households hasn't proven alluring to many providers. "It's easier to achieve a high penetration in Manhattan than Mississippi," said FCC Commissioner Deborah Taylor Tate in an Apr. 30 speech at the Broadband Properties Summit in Dallas.

Little Competition

But challenges of wiring remote communities don't tell the whole story. The OECD also found that U.S. broadband providers charge more than those in many developed nations. Broken down by megabit per second of download speed, U.S. rates ranged from $2.83 to $38.41 in late 2007. Rates in Japan started as low as 13¢ for one megabit per second, while France, Sweden, Korea, Finland, Australia, and others all start off at lower prices than the U.S. Furthermore, residents of European and Asian countries tend to have access to far speedier broadband options than Americans.

Consumer advocacy groups blame what they see as a market with little competition. They say the ability of major telephone and cable operators, such as Verizon Communications (VZ), AT&T (T), Time Warner Cable (TWX), and Comcast (CMCSA), to dominate their markets without sharing their lines with rivals has kept out new competition, enabling the companies to keep prices high and investments in faster technologies low. "All of these countries that are outpacing us have much more competitive broadband markets than we do," says S. Derek Turner, research director at Free Press, a media policy group. "You don't have the head-to-head competition like you do overseas where they have embraced open-access policies."

Turner and other consumer advocates are calling for the FCC to spur competition by requiring providers in certain regions to lease their high-speed lines at regulated prices to other providers. Otherwise, Turner says, would-be rivals will never enter the market, as they can't afford to tear up streets and run their own lines into households already wired long ago by cable and phone companies. Verizon, for example, is spending $23 billion to replace its copper wires with fiber-optic lines for its new high-speed FiOS broadband and TV services (BusinessWeek.com, 1/30/07). It hopes to have 7 million FiOS customers by 2010 in return for that hefty investment.

The FCC has rejected the argument that such measures are needed, saying Verizon and others would never invest that sort of money in network upgrades or in extending broadband to new communities if they were forced to then lease those lines to competitors. The government's role, says Commissioner Tate, is to have a "light regulatory touch," easing restrictions for broadband requirements to encourage competition and cracking down on acts that stifle competition, such as exclusive service deals between broadband providers and apartment building owners.

"Critical Role"

Regulators also hope that recent auctions of new wireless spectrum licenses will introduce new broadband competition over the airwaves. The problem with that argument, as consumer groups see it, is that broadband titans AT&T and Verizon were the auction's biggest winners (BusinessWeek.com, 4/21/08). "We fully expect that AT&T and Verizon will push things complementary to their existing services like mobile TV," says Turner. "We think there was a big opportunity missed."

Even if new rivals do emerge from the recent auction or another one being mulled to sell unused "white space" airwaves between TV channels (BusinessWeek.com, 3/24/08), wireless Internet access tends to be slower than a wired connection, says Turner. "It will make a difference," says Turner. "But, in the end, wireless spectrum just can't compete on a speed basis with fiber optics and hard-wired lines."

The U.S. has good reason to figure out some way to gain on the other OECD countries. A broadband connection is increasingly necessary to take advantage of the Web's interactive and rich media features, and is instrumental for e-commerce. "Broadband not only plays a critical role in the workings of the economy, it connects consumers, businesses, governments, and facilitates interaction," wrote OECD report authors Taylor Reynolds and Sacha Wunsch-Vincent. "Governments need to actively look for ways to encourage investment."

Check out the BusinessWeek.com slide show to see which countries claimed the top 15 spots in the OECD's ranking.

Holahan is a writer for BusinessWeek.com in New York.

[source]

Monday, August 25, 2008

Subscriber Values: Q2 2008

Business customers remain more valuable than residential, as competition in residential service decreases.

by Alex Goldman 
ISP-Planet Managing Editor
[August 25, 2008]
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Subscriber numbers are from ISP-Planet's list of Top U.S. ISPs and from company reports (and are as of June 30, 2008). Market capitalization data is as of market close, August 12, 2008, as reported on Yahoo Finance.

Our ISP rankings now contain only one pure, public ISP. United Online no longer considers itself an ISP. Time Warner is downplaying the importance of AOL.

ISP Subscriber Value:  $297

Stock Symbol

ISP

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[ELNK]

EarthLink

$297

$979

3,299,000

EarthLink, unfortunately, shows a higher subscriber value because its market cap is steady as subscriber numbers fall.

CLECs
Our CLEC listings require close examination. We are comparing a wide variety of companies, and we welcome your comments

CLEC Subscriber Value:  $2,008

Stock Symbol

CLEC

Value per subscriber

Market Cap
(millions)

Number of subscribers

[PAET]

PAETEC

$5,396

$851

162,940

[ALSK]

The ACS Group

$1,322

$526

397,846

[GNCMA]

General Communications

$811

$433

534,384

[SURW]

SureWest

$502

$107

213,141

Notes on CLECs
Fairport, N.Y.-based PAETEC reported serving 162,940 T-1 lines. Since it also delivers VoIP and also delivers high margin T-1 lines, its average revenue per customer (ARPU) is higher than many other CLECs on this list, justifying the price difference. The company reported over 47,000 business customers.

Anchorage, Alaska-based General Communications (CGI) competes as a CLEC with the ACS Group (below), which operates more like an ILEC. Nevertheless, GCI has found markets it can own in cellular and cable, as well as interesting niche markets in schools and rural health. Its consumer segment appears to be stronger than the business segment. The company reported the following subscribers:

Segment
Cable
Cable Broadband
Long Distance
Access Lines
Wireless
Consumer
130,700
91,000
89,800
78,100
77,000
Resell
2,000
Business
not disclosed
9,000
10,400
45,400
7,100
Other
+ 51 schools (representing 171) + 39 Rural Health clinics = 90
Total
= 540,190 subscribers
3

Anchorage, Alaska-based Alaska Communications Systems Group(The ACS Group). It served 180,541 access lines. It had 148,679 cellular customers (361 resale), 65,011 long distance customers, and 55,873 internet customers (47,939 DSL plus 7,934 dialup). The company is more like a rural ILEC than a CLEC, but its reported subscribers are declining in most segments.

Anchorage, Alaska-based SureWest is a small town ILEC that operates as a CLEC outside its home area. The company's success demonstrates the power of the ILEC advantage. It operates VoIP, cellular, and broadband (mostly DSL). It reported 105,600 broadband subscribers of which 100,200 subscribed to broadband internet, 56,600 to VoIP, and 57,100 to video. Since its VoIP business was only launched in March, 2008, the take rate is extremely impressive.

ISP sale
Q4 2007 saw one publicly announced purchase of an ISP that we know of. Multichannel news reports that SureWest acquired Everest Broadband for $173 million. The deal closed on Dec. 6, 2007. It covered 37,500 customers and was therefore worth $4,613 per customer. Key to the deal's high valuation were 1,600 commercial customers.

Nevertheless, the article notes:

The price also represents a healthy cash flow multiple–at 9.1 times Everest’s estimated third quarter 2007 annualized cash flow, compared to past overbuilder deals that have been valued at about 8.5 times cash flow.

Since the deal, SureWest's stock has fallen—perhaps one more case of a company being punished by Wall Street for reinvesting cash in its business while others are rewarded for letting equipment expire. The company sold its directories service in Q1 2007. In the past, this would have been a sign of distress, as directories were a profitable monopoly, but nowadays directories are just another monopoly that has been broken open by the internet.

Notes
Covad was acqired [.pdf] by private equity. It no longer reports numbers and has been removed from the list.

We have been hearing about many Wi-Fi rollups but most are secretive. Our one recent story (so far) on this subject is about Two Wi-Fi Rollups in Texas.

—End

 

Related articles:
 
[Jan. 7, 2008]
 
[Dec. 21, 2007]
 
[Nov. 27, 2006]

Online resources:
 DSL Subscriber Numbers
 History of Subscriber Values
 ISP Rankings Worldwide
 ISP-Planet's Investor section
 Top U.S. ISPs by Subscriber

[source]

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I have been involved in satellite communications since 1991. This is my 8th year on this project. I have been marketing, installing and supporting satellite delivered broadband solutions since 1996 and if you can't tell, am pretty passionate about helping folks in last mile America (and beyond) receive broadband @ their homes, businesses and some day, their RV's and mobile sites such as campgrounds and their vacation spots. Please call or write if you have any questions....Thomas 800-761-9149